42% of Americans will be obese by 2030 via the CDC

So apparently the CDC reported by CNN believes that 42% of Americans will be obese in 18 years. How did they find this out?

 

“The authors calculated the future obesity and severe obesity prevalence based on population factors such as gender, age, race, ethnicity, employment data and recent trends.”

“A better way would be to look at underlying factors of obesity like fast food prices, price of alcohol, internet access, changing demographics”

“They also looked at variables such as the cost of healthy food, grocery prices, the number of fast food restaurants and annual house hold income.”

Besides the controversial use of BMI to define obesity, anyone else find the data used to calculate these projections faulty? The underlying premise for some of the variables is that fast foods can lead to obesity. This is extremely controversial and quite a broad generalization no? To be fair I am just reading what CNN reported and have not looked at the original report/study by the CDC.

Additionally how does one define their variable “healthy food?” In the 70s white bread could be considered a “healthy food.” In the 80s margarine, 90s low-fat high fructose corn syrup products, and etc.

 

Fortunately he points out that these projections could be wrong since they are based off static data and one cannot predict what might happen in the next few years (such as people exploring carbohydrates as a factor in obesity in the mainstream perhaps?). The author seems to think the estimates will ultimately change due to pharmaceutical or technology developments rather than social change tho.

Bottom Line: These sort of studies rely on huge generalizations to calculate their variables. These variables may not even be related to obesity and instead are confounding. Whenever we see studies like this we must always ask ourselves “is the premise in which this is calculated from valid?” If not, we should be continuing to investigate more basic questions such as what causes obesity.

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2 thoughts on “42% of Americans will be obese by 2030 via the CDC

  1. Pingback: Fat and Sugar Always Blamed Together in the Media « The Fat Nurse

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